Fiscal forward guidance: A case for selective transparency

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fujiwara, Ippei; Waki, Yuichiro
• 署名单位: Keio University; Australian National University; University of Queensland; Aoyama Gakuin University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.10.007
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 236-248
• 关键词: Fiscal policy; private information; Forward guidance; news shock; Bayesian persuasion

摘要

Should the fiscal authority use forward guidance to reduce future policy uncertainty perceived by private agents? Using dynamic general equilibrium models, we examine the welfare effects of announcing future fiscal policy shocks and show that selective transparency is desirable - announcing distortionary future policy shocks can be detrimental to ex ante social welfare, whereas announcing non-distortionary shocks generally improves welfare. Sizable welfare gains are found with constructive ambiguity regarding the timing of a tax increase in a realistic fiscal consolidation scenario. However, being secretive about distortionary shocks is time inconsistent, and welfare loss from communication may be unavoidable. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.