Migration costs and observational returns to migration in the developing world

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lagakos, David; Marshall, Samuel; Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq; Vernot, Corey; Waugh, Michael E.
• 署名单位: National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Warwick; Yale University; Deakin University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; New York University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.013
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 138-154
• 关键词: Rural-urbanmigration; Observationalreturnstomigration; Migrationcosts; Rural-urbangaps; Gainsfromloweringmigrationcosts

摘要

Recent studies find that observational returns to rural-urban migration are near zero in three developing countries. We revisit this result using panel tracking surveys from six countries, finding higher returns on average. We then interpret these returns in a multiregion Roy model with heterogeneity in migration costs. In the model, the observational return to migration confounds the urban premium and the individual benefits of migrants, and is not directly informative about the welfare gain from lowering migration costs. Patterns of regional heterogeneity in returns, and a comparison of experimental to observational returns, are consistent with the model's predictions. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.