The economic impact of recession announcements *

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eggers, Andrew C.; Ellison, Martin; Lee, Sang Seok
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; University of Oxford; University of Oxford; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.03.002
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 40-52
• 关键词: Business cycle; recessions; regression discontinuity design; News media

摘要

The convention in the news media is to announce a recession if a country experiences two consecutive quarters of negative growth. We exploit the arbitrary threshold implied by this practice to identify the economic impact of recession announcements through a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Estimation results show that news of a recession leads to a discontinuous fall in consumer confidence, consumption growth and final estimates of GDP growth in a panel of countries. The effect is large, robust and statistically significant. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.