Input-output linkages in Pigouvian industrial fluctuations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Tian, Can
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.09.001
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Production network; Input-output linkages; Macro and micro shocks; expectations; Aggregate volatility

摘要

Input-output linkages facilitate expectations-driven fluctuations. Signals about yet-to-berealized aggregate (macro) and idiosyncratic (micro) fundamentals in the future affect current equilibrium outcome through chains of input needs when inputs require time to build. Depending on their importance on these chains, firms respond differently to common signals. The network structure, together with input time to build, determines the magnitude of signal-induced aggregate fluctuations. Macro signals need large input shares on average to produce sizable aggregate volatility, whereas micro signals require cross-sectional variations of input importance. Changing input time to build and altering the network structure have similar effects on equilibrium outcomes. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.