Through scarcity to prosperity: Toward a theory of sustainable growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Peretto, Pietro F.
• 署名单位: Duke University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.004
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: endogenous growth; market structure; natural resources

摘要

To make progress toward a comprehensive theory of sustainable growth, this paper integrates fertility choice and exhaustible resource dynamics in a tractable model of endogenous technological change. The model identifies conditions under which the interdependence of population, resources and technology produces a transition that consists of three phases: (1) an initial phase where agents exploit exhaustible natural resources to support population growth; (2) an intermediate phase where agents turn on the Schumpeterian engine of endogenous innovation in response to population-led market expansion; (3) a terminal phase where knowledge accumulation becomes the sole engine of growth. The last phase is crucial: not only economic growth no longer requires growth of physical inputs, but technological change also compensates for the exhaustion of the natural resource. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.