The macroeconomic effects of social security contributions and benefits

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gechert, Sebastian; Paetz, Christoph; Villanueva, Paloma
• 署名单位: Otto Friedrich University Bamberg
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.012
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Narrative approach; Fiscal multiplier; Social Security; MPC Heterogeneity

摘要

A narrative dataset of legislative social security shocks is constructed for Germany. The dataset covers major legal changes in benefits and contributions from 1970 to 2018. We estimate their macroeconomic effects in a proxy SVAR. The GDP response to a cut in contributions yields a fiscal multiplier of about 0.4 on impact that fades relatively quickly. For benefit increases the impact multiplier is 1.1 and more persistent. The response of other macro variables suggests that benefits work through a strong demand-side channel, while contributions exhibit supply-side effects. Combining the shocks with household data confirms a strong consumption response of beneficiaries. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.