Managing self-organization of expectations through monetary policy: A macro experiment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Assenza, T.; Heemeijer, P.; Hommes, C. H.; Massaro, D.
• 署名单位: Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Bank of Canada; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.12.005
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Laboratory experiments; monetary policy; expectations; taylor principle

摘要

The New Keynesian theory of inflation determination is tested in this paper by means of laboratory experiments. We find that the Taylor principle is a necessary condition to ensure convergence to the inflation target, but it is not sufficient. Using a behavioral model of expectation formation, we show how heterogeneous expectations tend to self-organize on different forecasting strategies depending on monetary policy. Finally, we link the central bank's ability to control inflation to the impact that monetary policy has on the type of feedback -positive or negative- between expectations and realizations of aggregate variables and in turn on the composition of subjects with respect to the type of forecasting rules they use. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.