What matters in households' inflation expectations? *

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Andrade, Philippe; Gautier, Erwan; Mengus, Eric
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of France; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.007
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 50-68
• 关键词: Inflation expectation channel; household spending; Household surveys; Stabilization policies

摘要

Using survey data on French households over the 2004-2018 period, we provide new evidence on the role of households' inflation expectations for durable spending decisions. A large share of households expects prices to remain stable instead of increasing. This share accounts for 75% of fluctuations in the average inflation expectation. Households expecting stable prices have a lower propensity to buy durable goods than those expecting positive inflation. In contrast, differences across households expecting positive inflation are associated with insignificant differences in durable consumption decisions. We discuss some policy implications. (c) 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.