Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It?s all in the monetary-fiscal mix

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ascari, Guido; Beck-Friis, Peder; Florio, Anna; Gobbi, Alessandro
• 署名单位: Polytechnic University of Milan; University of Milan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.11.008
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1-15
• 关键词: Monetary policy and fiscal policy; interactions; Government spending; Fiscal foresight; Non-fundamentalness

摘要

Announcements of future government spending have different effects on economic activity depending on the monetary-fiscal policy mix. Upon announcement, they are contractionary in the monetary regime but expansionary in the fiscal regime, in contrast with the expan-sionary nature of government spending at implementation in both regimes. Anticipation effects can therefore help empirically distinguish between the two regimes. Data support our theoretical insight, reconciling conflicting results in the empirical literature that dis-appear once conditioning on the policy regime. This evidence suggests that it could be (un)wise to anticipate future fiscal policies, depending on the regime in place.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.