Comments on Lessons from history for successful disinflation by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kohn, Donald
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103646
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Disinflation; monetary policy; COMMITMENT; Great Moderation; Federal Reserve

摘要

In these comments I extend the Romers' analysis to 1982-95, when inflation fell from 6 % to effective price stability with only one small recession. The Fed accomplished this, despite being only moderately committed to disinflation in the Romer classification, through careful weighing of shifting costs and benefits from tightening as inflation continued to moderate. Though policy backed off several times before stability was clearly in sight, success resulted from keeping focus on the ultimate price stability goal, pre-empting surges in inflation, and paying close attention to expectations. I close with suggestions about how the Fed can strengthen its price stability commitment in the 5-year review of its policy framework slated to begin in 2024.