The inflation expectations of US firms: Evidence from a new survey

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103569
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: expectations; Surveys; Anchoring; rational inattention

摘要

Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique dynamics, distinct from those of households and professional forecasters. By any typical definition of anchored expectations, the inflation expectations of U.S. managers in a low-inflation environment appear far from anchored, much like those of households. And like households, U.S. managers are largely uninformed about recent aggregate inflation dynamics or monetary policy. These results complement existing evidence on firms' inflation expectations from other countries and confirm that inattention to inflation and monetary policy is pervasive among U.S. firms as well.