Critique and consequence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sargent, Thomas J.
• 署名单位: New York University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.10.001
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 2-13
• 关键词: Rational expectations; Cross-equation restrictions; time-inconsistency; Dynamic programming squared

摘要

After describing the landscape in macroeconomics and econometrics in Spring 1973 when Robert E. Lucas (1976) first presented his Critique at the inaugural Carnegie-Rochester con-ference, I add a fourth example based on Sargent and Wallace (1973) to those in section 5 of Lucas's paper. To portray consequences of Lucas's Critique, I use it as a vehicle to describe the time inconsistency of optimal plans and their credibility. A theory of government policy affects chains of influence among money creation and inflation rates at different dates. Different theories of policy bring different state vectors in recursive representations of inflation-money-supply outcomes.