The emergence of procyclical fertility: The role of breadwinner women

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coskun, Sena; Dalgic, Husnu C.
• 署名单位: University of Erlangen Nuremberg; University of Mannheim
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.10.004
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: fertility; Fertility Procyclical fertility; Industry cyclicality; gender gap; Quality-quantity trade-off

摘要

Fertility in the US exhibits an increasingly more procyclical pattern. We argue that women's breadwinner status is behind procyclical and lower fertility: (i) women's relative income in the family has increased over time; and (ii) women are more likely to work in relatively stable and countercyclical industries whereas men tend to work in volatile and procyclical industries. This creates a countercyclical gender income gap as women become breadwinners in recessions, producing an insurance effect of women's income. Our quantitative framework shows that rising breadwinner status of women can explain both the emergence of procyclical fertility and the decline in fertility rate in the second half of the 20th century.