The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Geiger, Martin; Guentner, Jochen
• 署名单位: Johannes Kepler University Linz
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.003
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Brexit; business cycle; Economic policy uncertainty; high-frequency identification; monetary policy

摘要

The outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 was largely unanticipated. Even after the Leavevote, surprises regarding the withdrawal process affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of political events published by the House of Commons Library and daily data on asset prices and economic policy uncertainty to construct a novel instrument for Brexit surprises. Including a monthly aggregate of this instrument into a vector-autoregressive model of the UK economy, an adverse Brexit surprise lowers GDP growth while raising CPI inflation. We provide evidence that the Bank of England fended off a worse economic contraction.