Phillips meets Beveridge

• 成果类型: Editorial Material
• 署名作者: Barnichon, Regis; Shapiro, Adam Hale
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103660
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Phillips curve; Beveridge curve; Matching efficiency

摘要

The Phillips curve plays a central role in the macroeconomics literature. However, there is little consensus on the forcing variable that drives inflation in the model, i.e., on the appropriate measure of ''slack'' in the economy. In this work, we systematically assess the ability of variables commonly used in the literature to (i) predict and (ii) explain inflation fluctuations over time and across U.S. metropolitan areas. In particular, we exploit a newly constructed panel dataset with job openings and vacancy filling cost proxies covering 1982-2022. We find that the vacancy-unemployment (V/U) ratio and vacancy filling cost proxies outperform other slack measures, in particular the unemployment rate. Beveridge curve shifts-notably, movements in matching efficiency-are responsible for the superior performance of the V/U ratio over unemployment.