Asymmetric information and misaligned inflation expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Han, Zhao
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.10.010
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: inflation dynamics; Expectation formation; survey data; business cycles; monetary policy; Central bank communication

摘要

Recent survey evidence reveals misaligned inflation expectations among economic agents. While households associate higher expected inflation with lower output growth, professional forecasters link higher future inflation to higher output growth. Firms' expectations display neither negative nor positive correlations. We explain such patterns jointly in a general equilibrium New Keynesian framework. Asymmetric information arises naturally as (i) households and firms receive imperfect, asymmetric information about supply and demand shocks, and (ii) the central bank learns from equilibrium outcomes (i.e., output and inflation) as opposed to the private sector. Survey data help uncover the magnitudes of information frictions among economic agents.