Behavioral theories of the business cycle

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Jaimovich, Nir; Rebelo, Sergio
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1162/jeea.2007.5.2-3.361
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 361-368
• 关键词: investment; GROWTH

摘要

We explore the business cycle implications of expectation shocks and of two well-known psychological biases, optimism and overconfidence. The expectations of optimistic agents are biased toward good outcomes, whereas overconfident agents overestimate the precision of the signals that they receive. Both expectation shocks and overconfidence can increase business-cycle volatility, while preserving the model's properties in terms of comovement and relative volatilities. In contrast, optimism is not a useful source of volatility in our model.