FOOD SCARES IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chambers, Robert G.; Melkonyan, Tigran A.
• 署名单位: University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1111/jeea.12057
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 1432-1456
• 关键词: recursive multiple-priors; expected utility; risk perception; INFORMATION; ambiguity; demand; contamination; dilation; aversion; welfare

摘要

We develop a model that explains the stylized facts of food scares: an immediate and sharp decline in consumption of the product followed by a slow and frequently partial recovery of demand after the scare passes. The model is used in conjunction with the natural experiment afforded by the 'mad-cow' crisis to elicit empirical information on decision makers' perception of uncertainty. Our theoretical and quantitative results suggest that observed behavior is consistent with sharp changes in beliefs and the presence of Knightian uncertainty, as measured by the degree of imprecision in our model.