LEANING AGAINST THE CREDIT CYCLE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gelain, Paolo; Lansing, Kevin J.; Natvik, Gisle James
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Norges Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; BI Norwegian Business School
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvx043
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1350-1393
• 关键词: monetary-policy; mortgages; prices; debt; DYNAMICS

摘要

How should a central bank act to stabilize the ratio of debt over gross domestic product (GDP)? We show how the persistent nature of household debt shapes the answer to this question. In environments where households repay mortgages gradually, surprise interest hikes only weakly influence household debt, and tend to increase debt-to-GDP in the short run while reducing it in the medium run. Interest rate rules with a positive weight on debt-to-GDP cause indeterminacy. Compared to inflation targeting, debt-to-GDP stabilization calls for a more expansionary policy when debt-to-GDP is high, so as to deflate the debt burden through inflation and output growth. (JEL: E52, E32, E44)