(MIS-)PREDICTED SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING FOLLOWING LIFE EVENTS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Odermatt, Reto; Stutzer, Alois
• 署名单位: University of Basel
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvy005
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 245-283
• 关键词: impact bias; adaptation; satisfaction; expectations; disability; happier; would; MODEL; alive

摘要

The correct prediction of how alternative states of the world affect our lives is a cornerstone of economics. We study how accurate people are in predicting their future well-being after facing major life events. Based on individual panel data, we compare people's life satisfaction forecasts reported in the first interview after a major life event with their actual evaluations five years later on. This is done after the individuals experience widowhood, unemployment, disability, marriage, separation, or divorce. We find systematic prediction errors that seem at least partly driven by unforeseen adaptation after the first four of these events.