Mass Political Information on Social Media: Facebook Ads, Electorate Saturation, and Electoral Accountability in Mexico

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Enriquez, Jose Ramon; Larreguy, Horacio; Marshall, John; Simpser, Alberto
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvae011
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 1678-1722
• 关键词: effective number; COMMUNICATION; equilibrium; malfeasance; networks; PARTIES; MODEL

摘要

Social media's capacity to quickly and inexpensively reach large audiences almost simultaneously has the potential to promote electoral accountability. Beyond increasing direct exposure to information, high saturation campaigns-which target substantial fractions of an electorate-may induce or amplify information diffusion, persuasion, or coordination between voters. Randomizing saturation across municipalities, we evaluate the electoral impact of non-partisan Facebook ads informing millions of Mexican citizens of municipal expenditure irregularities in 2018. The vote shares of incumbent parties that engaged in zero/negligible irregularities increased by 6-7 percentage points in directly-targeted electoral precincts. This direct effect, but also the indirect effect in untargeted precincts within treated municipalities, were significantly greater where ads targeted 80%-rather than 20%-of the municipal electorate. The amplifying effects of high saturation campaigns are driven by citizens within more socially-connected municipalities, rather than responses by politicians or media outlets. These findings demonstrate how mass media can ignite social interactions to promote political accountability.