Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Candia, Bernardo; Pedemonte, Mathieu
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Inter-American Development Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvae051
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1173-1201
• 关键词: exchange-rates; economic-recovery; great-depression; expectations; LABOR; end

摘要

Flexible exchange rates can facilitate price adjustments that buffer macroeconomic shocks. We test this hypothesis using adjustments to the gold standard during the Great Depression. Using novel monthly data on city-level economic activity, sectoral employment, and export data, we show that American exporting cities were significantly affected by changes in bilateral exchange rates. We calibrate a general equilibrium model to obtain aggregate effects from cross-sectional estimates. We show that the trade channel deepened the Great Depression and was a key driver of the economic recovery in 1933.