The Uncharted Waters of International Trade

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Antras, Pol
• 署名单位: Harvard University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvae060
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1-51
• 关键词: FOREIGN DIRECT-INVESTMENT; product differentiation; vertical specialization; intermediate inputs; import competition; multiproduct firms; economic-theory; market power; goods trade; export

摘要

The field of international trade has undergone significant theoretical and empirical advancements over the last 25 years. A key breakthrough has been the emergence of firm-level approaches to studying exporting, importing, and global value chains. The field has also experienced a quantitative revolution, driven by medium-scale models that rapidly assess the implications of trade cost shocks on real income. Additionally, a branch of the empirical literature has unshackled itself from the discipline of theoretical frameworks and from traditional data sources. Yet, several underexplored areas, or uncharted waters, remain in international trade research. I outline new potential areas for theoretical research, including incorporating oligopolistic (strategic) behavior into core models, and fostering greater cross-disciplinary collaboration with other fields in economics and social sciences, such as behavioral economics or political science. I also discuss potential uncharted waters for empirical trade economists, while identifying potential new sources of data and ways in which official trade statistics could be improved. Finally, I explore how big data and artificial intelligence could reshape the design of international trade policy in coming years.