RATIONAL AND ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS IN THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL OF HYPERINFLATION

• 成果类型: Note
• 署名作者: BELADI, H; CHOUDHARY, MAS; PARAI, AK
• 署名单位: State University of New York (SUNY) System; SUNY Fredonia
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.2307/2109466
• 发表日期: 1993-08
• 页码: 511-514
• 关键词: price-level bubbles; tests

摘要

We apply Chow's (1989) technique to the present value model of hyperinflation under rational and adaptive expectation hypotheses. We use the monthly data on price and money supply of Germany (1921:5-1923:8), Hungary (1921:10-1924:2) and Poland (1922:1-1924:1). Our test results show that the German data are consistent with the adaptive expectations hypothesis and the Hungarian data are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. The Polish data, however, do not support either of the two hypotheses.