Climate change and US agriculture: Accounting for multidimensional slope heterogeneity in panel data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Keane, Michael; Neal, Timothy
• 署名单位: University of New South Wales Sydney
• 刊物名称: QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1759-7323
• DOI: 10.3982/QE1319
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1391-1429
• 关键词: climate change; crop yield; production function; large panel data models; C23; C54; D24; Q15; Q51; Q54; Q55

摘要

We study potential impacts of future climate change on U.S. agricultural productivity using county-level yield and weather data from 1950 to 2015. To account for adaptation of production to different weather conditions, it is crucial to allow for both spatial and temporal variation in the production process mapping weather to crop yields. We present a new panel data estimation technique, called mean observation OLS (MO-OLS) that allows for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in all regression parameters (intercepts and slopes). Both forms of heterogeneity are important: We find strong evidence that production function parameters adapt to local climate, and also that sensitivity of yield to high temperature declined from 1950-89. We use our estimates to project corn yields to 2100 using 19 climate models and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We predict unmitigated climate change will greatly reduce yield. Our mean prediction (over climate models) is that adaptation alone can mitigate 36% of the damage, while emissions reductions consistent with the Paris targets would mitigate 76%.