Identification of counterfactuals in dynamic discrete choice models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kalouptsidi, Myrto; Scott, Paul T.; Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo
• 署名单位: Harvard University; New York University; University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1759-7323
• DOI: 10.3982/QE1253
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 351-403
• 关键词: identification; dynamic discrete choice; counterfactual; welfare; C14; C23; C25; C50; C61; L00; Q15

摘要

Dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models are not identified nonparametrically, but the non-identification of models does not necessarily imply the nonidentification of counterfactuals. We derive novel results for the identification of counterfactuals in DDC models, such as non-additive changes in payoffs or changes to agents' choice sets. In doing so, we propose a general framework that allows the investigation of the identification of a broad class of counterfactuals (covering virtually any counterfactual encountered in applied work). To illustrate the results, we consider a firm entry/exit problem numerically, as well as an empirical model of agricultural land use. In each case, we provide examples of both identified and nonidentified counterfactuals of interest.