Anticipated productivity and the labor market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chahrour, Ryan; Chugh, Sanjay K.; Potter, Tristan
• 署名单位: Cornell University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Drexel University
• 刊物名称: QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1759-7323
• DOI: 10.3982/QE2029
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 897-934
• 关键词: News shocks; wages; labor search; business cycles; E24; E32

摘要

We identify the main shock driving fluctuations in long-horizon productivity expectations, consistent with theories of TFP news. The identified shock induces strong comovement patterns in output, consumption, investment, employment, and stock prices even though TFP does not change significantly for more than 2 years. A labor search model in which wages are determined by a cash-flow sharing rule, rather than the present value of match surplus, matches the observed responses to the news shock. The model also matches the empirical patterns of vacancies, labor force participation, hours, and job-finding rates. The proposed wage rule is consistent with empirical responses of wages to both anticipated and unanticipated productivity changes.