Heterogeneous effects of tariff and nontariff trade-policy barriers in quantitative general equilibrium

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Egger, Peter H.; Erhardt, Katharina
• 署名单位: Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf
• 刊物名称: QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1759-7323
• DOI: 10.3982/QE1994
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 453-487
• 关键词: Trade policy; gravity models; semiparametric methods; nonparametric methods; generalized propensity scores; C14; F13; F14

摘要

Structural quantitative work in international economics typically models trade costs as a log-linear function of exogenous trade-policy variables. We propose a structural approach that allows for a nonparametric relationship and for treating tariff and nontariff trade-policy variables as potentially endogenous. The data reject the assumption of log-linearity of trade costs in both tariff- and nontariff-policy variables. We assess the effects of a unilateral increase of US tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points and document that the estimated effects on real bilateral trade-flow changes would be substantially underestimated by standard approaches.