Recent US macroeconomic stability: Good policies, good practices, or good luck?
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Ahmed, S; Levin, A; Wilson, BA
署名单位：
Federal Reserve System - USA
刊物名称：
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0034-6535
DOI：
10.1162/0034653041811662
发表日期：
2004-08
页码：
824-832
关键词：
摘要：
The volatility of U.S. real GDP growth since 1984 has been markedly lower than over the previous quarter century. We utilize frequency-domain and VAR methods to distinguish among competing explanations for this reduction: improvements in monetary policy, better business practices, and a fortuitous reduction in exogenous disturbances. We find that reduced innovation variances account for much of the decline in aggregate output volatility, suggesting that good luck is the most likely explanation. Good practices and good policy appear to have played a more important role in explaining the post-1984 decline in the volatility of consumer price inflation.
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