Precautionary behavior, migrant networks, and household consumption decisions: An empirical analysis using household panel data from rural China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Giles, John; Yoo, Kyeongwon
• 署名单位: Michigan State University; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest.89.3.534
• 发表日期: 2007-08
• 页码: 534-551
• 关键词: correlated random-coefficient; permanent income hypothesis; labor-markets; RISK; migration; weather; savings; INDIA; TRANSITION; countries

摘要

We develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households. Among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk, 10% of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive, and this increases to 15% for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line. We next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village, and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases.