VOTING AFTER THE BOMBINGS: A NATURAL EXPERIMENT ON THE EFFECT OF TERRORIST ATTACKS ON DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Montalvo, Jose G.
• 署名单位: Pompeu Fabra University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00115
• 发表日期: 2011-11
• 页码: 1146-1154
• 关键词: difference-in-differences; inference

摘要

Can terrorist attacks be timed to change the outcome of democratic elections? In this paper, we analyze the electoral impact of the terrorist attacks of March 11, 2004, in Madrid. Studies using individual level postelectoral survey data reach contradictory conclusions. We propose an alternative approach. Since the bombings took place only three days before the 2004 congressional election, we can find a control group of individuals who cast their vote before the terrorist attacks. The results indicate that the attacks had an important electoral impact, rejecting the hypothesis that the identity of the winner was unaffected by the terrorist attacks.