THE PROPAGATION OF REGIONAL RECESSIONS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hamilton, James D.; Owyang, Michael T.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00197
• 发表日期: 2012-11
• 页码: 935-947
• 关键词: business-cycle; posterior distributions

摘要

This paper develops a framework for inferring common Markov-switching components in panel data sets with large cross-section and time series dimensions. We study similarities and differences across U. S. states in the timing of business cycles. We hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations, with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics. We find that although oil-producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the United States, for the most part, differences across states appear to be a matter of timing, with some states entering recession or recovering before others.