ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF THE AGE DISTRIBUTION ON CYCLICAL OUTPUT VOLATILITY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lugauer, Steven
• 署名单位: University of Notre Dame
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00278
• 发表日期: 2012-11
• 页码: 896-902
• 关键词: demographics; young

摘要

I exploit the variation in demographic change across the United States to estimate the relationship between the age distribution in the population and the magnitude of cyclical output volatility. According to panel regression estimates, the relative supply of young workers, or youth share, has a statistically significant effect on the volatility of state-by-state GDP. Moreover, changes to the age distribution can account for up to 58% of the recent reduction in business cycle fluctuations, indicating a critical link between the youth share and output volatility.