PUBLIC INFORMATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: MICROECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carrillo, Paul E.; Emran, M. Shahe
• 署名单位: George Washington University; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00213
• 发表日期: 2012-11
• 页码: 860-877
• 关键词: social value; sticky; sweden; MODEL

摘要

Governments provide public information to reduce information imperfections. Do households rely on public signals to inform themselves about market conditions? To identify the importance of public information in households' price expectations, we take advantage of a unique natural experiment in Ecuador where the published inflation rate had been different from the correct rate over a period of fourteen months due to a software error. We find that the public signal about prices plays an important role in households' price expectations, and the change in price expectations affects their savings choices. The effect is stronger for better-educated and older people.