Green Expectations: Current Effects of Anticipated Carbon Pricing

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lemoine, Derek
• 署名单位: University of Arizona
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00627
• 发表日期: 2017-07
• 页码: 499-513
• 关键词: perfect-foresight model; prediction markets; stock returns; fiscal-policy; event; cost; methodology; inference; shocks

摘要

I report evidence that an anticipated strengthening of environmental policy increased emissions. I find that the breakdown of the U.S. Senate's 2010 climate effort generated positive excess returns in coal futures markets. This response appears to be driven by an increase in coal storage. The proposed legislation aimed to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions after 2013, but the legislative process itself may have increased emissions by over 12 million tons of carbon dioxide leading up to April 2010.