Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Berkes, Enrico; Deschenes, Olivier; Gaetani, Ruben; Lin, Jeffrey; Severen, Christopher
• 署名单位: University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Toronto; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01289
• 发表日期: 2025-05
• 页码: 853-863
• 关键词: knowledge spillovers; interventions; invention

摘要

Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)-policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease-on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large U.S. cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and they recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge spillovers, NPIs adopted during the pandemic may have preserved other inventive factors.