Latent Exports: Almost Ideal Gravity and Zeros

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Anderson, James E.; Zhang, Penglong
• 署名单位: Boston College; Tsinghua University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01251
• 发表日期: 2025-01
• 页码: 221-239
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; QUALITY; tastes

摘要

Export promotion at the extensive margin is a key concern ofgovernments. We develop measures of how far firms in origin sectors arefrom break-even entry in destination markets. The measure is based on Al-most Ideal gravity featuring heterogeneous price and income elasticities.Tobit estimation of 2006 trade flows for 75 countries and 25 sectors gener-ates latent trade bias (LTB)-the latent (projected) trade share of nonpart-ners minus the as-if-frictionless trade share. Explained LTB variance de-composition shows that variable trade costs (distance and tariffs together)account for zero flows more than do fixed trade costs (entry cost) and in-come variation.