Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rounce, David R.; Hock, Regine; Maussion, Fabien; Hugonnet, Romain; Kochtitzky, William; Huss, Matthias; Berthier, Etienne; Brinkerhoff, Douglas; Compagno, Loris; Copland, Luke; Farinotti, Daniel; Menounos, Brian; McNabb, Robert W.
• 署名单位: Carnegie Mellon University; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Fairbanks; University of Oslo; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Laboratoire d'Etudes en Geophysique et oceanographie spatiales; University of Ottawa; University of New England - Maine; University of Fribourg; University of Montana System; University of Montana; University of Northern British Columbia; Hakai Institute; Ulster University
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-12564
• DOI: 10.1126/science.abo1324
• 发表日期: 2023-01-06
• 页码: 78-83
• 关键词: surface velocity; mass-balance; ice cap; island

摘要

Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 +/- 6% (+1.5 degrees C) to 41 +/- 11% (+4 degrees C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 +/- 26 to 154 +/- 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 +/- 9 to 83 +/- 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature projected to increase by +2.7 degrees C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 +/- 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.