Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Smith, Mark W.; Willis, Thomas; Mroz, Elizabeth; James, William H. M.; Klaar, Megan J.; Gosling, Simon N.; Thomas, Christopher J.
• 署名单位: University of Leeds; University of Nottingham; University of Lincoln; University of Lincoln; University of Namibia
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-10781
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adk8755
• 发表日期: 2024-05-10
• 页码: 697-703
• 关键词: gambiae-sensu-stricto; CLIMATE-CHANGE; vectors; transmission; temperature; multimodel; uncertainty; models; RISK

摘要

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.