Climate change extinctions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Urban, Mark C.
• 署名单位: University of Connecticut; University of Connecticut; University of Aberdeen
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8123
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adp4461
• 发表日期: 2024-12-06
• 页码: 1123-1128
• 关键词: elevational range shifts; RISK; biodiversity; debt

摘要

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.