Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Goessling, Helge F.; Rackow, Thomas; Jung, Thomas
• 署名单位: Helmholtz Association; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar & Marine Research; University of Bremen
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-9355
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adq7280
• 发表日期: 2025-01-03
• 页码: 68-73
• 关键词: sea-surface temperature; top-of-atmosphere; cloud feedbacks; shortwave; SPREAD; cover

摘要

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5 kelvin above the preindustrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17 kelvin. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers, including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset, fall short by about 0.2 kelvin in explaining the temperature rise. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we identified a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multiannual trend. Further exploring the low-cloud trend and understanding how much of it is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the present and expected future warming.