Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zekollari, Harry; Schuster, Lilian; Maussion, Fabien; Hock, Regine; Marzeion, Ben; Rounce, David R.; Compagno, Loris; Fujita, Koji; Huss, Matthias; James, Megan; Kraaijenbrink, Philip D. A.; Lipscomb, William H.; Minallah, Samar; Oberrauch, Moritz; Van Tricht, Lander; Champollion, Nicolas; Edwards, Tamsin; Farinotti, Daniel; Immerzeel, Walter; Leguy, Gunter; Sakai, Akiko
• 署名单位: Vrije Universiteit Brussel; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; University of Innsbruck; University of Bristol; University of Oslo; University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Fairbanks; University of Bremen; University of Bremen; Carnegie Mellon University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; Nagoya University; University of Fribourg; University of London; King's College London; Utrecht University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA)
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-9516
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adu4675
• 发表日期: 2025-05-29
• 页码: 979-983
• 关键词: sea-level rise; mass-balance; MODEL; scale; EVOLUTION; attribution; adjustment; time

摘要

Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, with long-term implications for sea-level rise and water supply. Using eight glacier models, we simulated global glacier evolution over multicentennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature scenarios. We estimate that glaciers globally will lose 39 (range, 15 to 55)% of their mass relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 (range, 43 to 204) mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5 degrees C Paris Agreement goal, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% versus 24%) compared with the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7 degrees C by 2100 above preindustrial). Our findings stress the need for stringent mitigation policies to ensure the long-term preservation of glaciers.