Disappearing cities on US coasts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ohenhen, Leonard O.; Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Ojha, Chandrakanta; Sherpa, Sonam F.; Nicholls, Robert J.
• 署名单位: Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Indian Institute of Science Education & Research (IISER) - Mohali; Brown University; Brown University; University of East Anglia
• 刊物名称: Nature
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-6059
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07038-3
• 发表日期: 2024-03-07
• 关键词: sea-level rise; CLIMATE-CHANGE; flood resilience; new-orleans; subsidence; IMPACT; inundation; strategies; tide

摘要

The sea level along the US coastlines is projected to rise by 0.25-0.3 m by 2050, increasing the probability of more destructive flooding and inundation in major cities1-3. However, these impacts may be exacerbated by coastal subsidence-the sinking of coastal land areas4-a factor that is often underrepresented in coastal-management policies and long-term urban planning2,5. In this study, we combine high-resolution vertical land motion (that is, raising or lowering of land) and elevation datasets with projections of sea-level rise to quantify the potential inundated areas in 32 major US coastal cities. Here we show that, even when considering the current coastal-defence structures, further land area of between 1,006 and 1,389 km2 is threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to a population of 55,000-273,000 people and 31,000-171,000 properties. Our analysis shows that not accounting for spatially variable land subsidence within the cities may lead to inaccurate projections of expected exposure. These potential consequences show the scale of the adaptation challenge, which is not appreciated in most US coastal cities. High-resolution vertical land motion and elevation datasets combined with projections of sea-level rise of 32 major US coastal cities shows that a considerable amount of land area, population, and properties are threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050.