Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chan, Wei-Ping; Lenoir, Jonathan; Mai, Guan-Shuo; Kuo, Hung-Chi; Chen, I-Ching; Shen, Sheng-Feng
• 署名单位: Academia Sinica - Taiwan; Harvard University; Taipei Medical University; Harvard University; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV); National Taiwan University; National Cheng Kung University; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: Nature
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-4626
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07264-9
• 发表日期: 2024-05-02
• 关键词: temperature lapse rates; range shifts; elevation; northern; endemism

摘要

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change 1,2 . Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms 3,4 . However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions 5 . Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour 6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified. An analysis of the rate at which isotherms are shifting in mountain regions worldwide identifies 17 key regions with particularly high vertical isotherm shift velocities, and provides insight into how these shifts affect species ranges.