Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 CE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Xu, Guobao; Broadman, Ellie; Dorado-Linan, Isabel; Klippel, Lara; Meko, Matthew; Buntgen, Ulf; De Mil, Tom; Esper, Jan; Gunnarson, Bjorn; Hartl, Claudia; Krusic, Paul J.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Ljungqvist, Fredrik C.; Ludlow, Francis; Panayotov, Momchil; Seim, Andrea; Wilson, Rob; Zamora-Reyes, Diana; Trouet, Valerie
• 署名单位: Northwest University Xi'an; University of Arizona; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Universidad Politecnica de Madrid; Deutscher Wetterdienst; University of Cambridge; Czech Academy of Sciences; Global Change Research Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; Masaryk University; University of Liege; Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz; Stockholm University; Justus Liebig University Giessen; Stockholm University; University of Gothenburg; Stockholm University; Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study (SCAS); Trinity College Dublin; Trinity College Dublin; University of Forestry - Bulgaria; University of Freiburg; University of Innsbruck; University of St Andrews
• 刊物名称: Nature
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-4795
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x
• 发表日期: 2024-10-17
• 页码: 600-+
• 关键词: summer temperature reconstruction; north-atlantic; variability; series; minimum; HISTORY; forests; events; TRENDS; winter

摘要

The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes(1-3). Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic-European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300-2004 ce (R-2=38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 ce as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.