Decadal changes in atmospheric circulation detected in cloud motion vectors

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Di Girolamo, Larry; Zhao, Guangyu; Zhang, Gan; Wang, Zhuo; Loveridge, Jesse; Mitra, Arka
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Colorado State University System; Colorado State University Fort Collins
• 刊物名称: Nature
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-3085
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09242-1
• 发表日期: 2025-07-24
• 关键词: climate models; TRENDS; misr; expansion

摘要

Changing atmospheric circulations shift global weather patterns and their extremes, profoundly affecting human societies and ecosystems. Studies using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8-9 indicate diverse circulation changes in recent decades but show discrepancies in magnitude and even direction, underscoring the urgent need for validation with independent, climate-quality measurements3. Here we show statistically significant changes in tropospheric circulation over the past two decades using satellite-observed, height-resolved cloud motion vectors from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR)10,11. Upper tropospheric cloud motion speeds in the mid-latitudes have increased by up to about 4 m s-1 decade-1. This acceleration is primarily because of the strengthening of meridional flow, potentially indicating more poleward storm tracks or intensified extratropical cyclones. The Northern and Southern Hemisphere tropics shifted poleward at rates of 0.42 +/- 0.22 and 0.02 +/- 0.14 degrees latitude decade-1 (95% confidence interval), respectively, whereas the corresponding polar fronts shifted at rates of 0.37 +/- 0.31 and 0.31 +/- 0.21 degrees latitude decade-1. We also show that the widely used ERA5 (ref. 12) reanalysis winds subsampled to the MISR are in good agreement with the climatological values and trends of the MISR but indicate probable ERA5 biases in the upper troposphere. These MISR-based observations provide critical benchmarks for refining reanalysis and climate models to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on cloud and atmospheric circulations.