Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment
成果类型：
Review
署名作者：
Abram, Nerilie J.; Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew H.; Mccormack, Felicity S.; Strugnell, Jan M.; Bergstrom, Dana M.; Vance, Tessa R.; Stal, Tobias; Wienecke, Barbara; Heil, Petra; Doddridge, Edward W.; Sallee, Jean-Baptiste; Williams, Thomas J.; Reading, Anya M.; Mackintosh, Andrew; Reese, Ronja; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Klose, Ann Kristin; Boyd, Philip W.; Chown, Steven L.; Robinson, Sharon A.
署名单位：
Australian National University; Australian National University; Australian National University; Monash University; Monash University; University of New South Wales Sydney; University of New South Wales Sydney; James Cook University; James Cook University; James Cook University; University of Wollongong; University of Johannesburg; University of Tasmania; University of Tasmania; Australian Antarctic Division; University of Tasmania; University of Tasmania; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow & Landscape Research; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN); Sorbonne Universite; Northumbria University; Max Planck Society; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; University of Potsdam; University of Wollongong
刊物名称：
Nature
ISSN/ISSBN：
0028-2125
DOI：
10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5
发表日期：
2025-08-21
关键词：
sea-level rise
ice-sheet instability
pine island glacier
deep southern-ocean
CLIMATE-CHANGE
tipping elements
west antarctica
grounding lines
regime shifts
mass-balance
摘要：
Human-caused climate change worsens with every increment of additional warming, although some impacts can develop abruptly. The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than the anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. The tipping point for unstoppable ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be exceeded even under best-case CO2 emission reduction pathways, potentially initiating global tipping cascades. Regime shifts are occurring in Antarctic and Southern Ocean biological systems through habitat transformation or exceedance of physiological thresholds, and compounding breeding failures are increasing extinction risk. Amplifying feedbacks are common between these abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment, and stabilizing Earth's climate with minimal overshoot of 1.5 degrees C will be imperative alongside global adaptation measures to minimise and prepare for the far-reaching impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean abrupt changes.