A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gidden, Matthew J.; Joshi, Siddharth; Armitage, John J.; Christ, Alina-Berenice; Boettcher, Miranda; Brutschin, Elina; Koberle, Alexandre C.; Riahi, Keywan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Rogelj, Joeri
• 署名单位: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; IFP Energies Nouvelles; Utrecht University; Universidade de Lisboa; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Imperial College London; Humboldt University of Berlin; Humboldt University of Berlin; Imperial College London; Imperial College London
• 刊物名称: Nature
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-1031
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09423-y
• 发表日期: 2025-09-04
• 关键词: co2 storage; dioxide removal; capture; sequestration; OIL; selection; database; time; gas

摘要

Geologically storing carbon is a key strategy for abating emissions from fossil fuels and durably removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere1,2. However, the storage potential is not unlimited3,4. Here we establish a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 (1,290-2,710) Gt of CO2 storage through a risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins. We show that only stringent near-term gross emissions reductions can lower the risk of breaching this limit before the year 2200. Fully using geologic storage for carbon removal caps the possible global temperature reduction to 0.7 degrees C (0.35-1.2 degrees C, including storage estimate and climate response uncertainty). The countries most robust to our risk assessment are current large-scale extractors of fossil resources. Treating carbon storage as a limited intergenerational resource has deep implications for national mitigation strategies and policy and requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use.